奥列格·巴拉巴诺夫：俄乌抵触完毕后，俄罗斯会转回西方吗？“绝不或许”

发布时间：2025-05-12　点此：370次

已持续两年多的俄乌抵触，近期忽然迎来了新的变局：俄罗斯5月14日忽然替换国防部长，英国炒作我国“对俄售卖丧命兵器”当即遭到美国打脸，普京也在5月23日签署总统令，答应运用美国在俄财物补偿俄方丢失。在战场上，俄罗斯也持续获得开展，从头攻入哈尔科夫州北部区域。与此同时，7日正式就任新一任期的普京将怎么持续推进俄罗斯经济转型，也成为外界重视的焦点之一。

近来，在北京对话与联合国南边中心联合举办的“金砖国家钱银和金融体系变革”对话会期间，北京对话秘书长韩桦对话俄罗斯瓦尔代沙龙项目总监、俄罗斯高级经济大学教授奥列格·巴拉巴诺夫（Oleg Barabanov），评论了俄罗斯“转向东方”战略及中俄联系，俄乌抵触期间的俄罗斯经济转型，普京的新一任期施政方向，即将在俄举办的金砖峰会等论题。

巴拉巴诺夫到会“金砖国家钱银和金融体系变革”对话会

【采访/北京对话秘书长韩桦，翻译/李泽西】

韩桦：俄乌军事行动持续了近两年半，俄罗斯的经济结构也在发生变化，从出口自然资源为根底的经济结构转变为愈加多元化的经济开展结构。这是我的了解。您能否细谈这一点，以及怎么预判俄罗斯的经济未来？

奥列格·巴拉巴诺夫：是的，没错。在我看来，我更乐意跟我国人谈这个问题，由于我国读者会更简单了解这个问题。由于俄罗斯在苏联崩溃后，共产党不再领导国家，经济上就一向遵从新自由主义形式。因而，国家对实体工业的大型出资都适当有限。

当然，在石油和天然气勘探范畴，国家和私家出资都适当可观，但关于一切其他实体工业、机械制造、各种产品的出产，国家出资和建议都是有限的。咱们政府遵从新自由主义形式，将其作为安稳商场金融、阻挠通货膨胀率等的首要正义，而一切对实体工业的出资都被以为是共产主义的不良遗产。

因而，这不仅是一个根据政治经济考虑的决议方案，不幸的是，这也是一个意识形态产品。现在，在乌克兰军事行动开端后，我国政府被逼向实体工业出资，当然首要是军事出产，但咱们现已能够看到军事出资外溢到民用出产部门。

许多人都感到惊奇，在美国和欧洲的制裁压力下，俄罗斯经济现在体现得如此地好。可是，咱们之所以能在制裁下经济开展杰出，其间一个要害的原因或许正是政府 30年来初次开端出资实体工业。事实上，咱们的新任国防部长别洛乌索夫先生曾任榜首副总理，他就大力建议出资工业，是重要的思想家。

俄罗斯新防长别洛乌索夫（材料图）

俄罗斯政府中有两派，一派是新自由主义者，只重视微观金融问题，另一派则建议促进对工业项目的出资，别洛乌索夫便是第二派的一员，至少是揭露支撑对工业的出资。或许这也是他作为国防部长，在这个新职位上所需求的技术，即和谐军事工业的预算开销。

韩桦：所以你的意思是，在曩昔30年里，你们现已为实体工业打下了坚实的根底。由于战役，军费开支的溢出效应自然会发生一些经济效果，对吗？

奥列格·巴拉巴诺夫：没错。

韩桦：还有别洛乌索夫便是这一进程背面的推进者。别的，普京连任总统标志着俄罗斯在困难的时间段坚持了安稳，您怎么展望未来六年？

奥列格·巴拉巴诺夫：能够必定的是，他的连任得票率适当高，由于在之前几回连任期间，他的得票率约为70%，而现在俄罗斯中心选举委员会宣告他得到87%的选票，比曩昔高约17%。官方解说说，在其时的地缘政治局势下，民众益发支撑总统。

当地时间4月18日，普京成功连任后举办记者会

关于未来规划，普京有一个习气，在新任期开端后，他会当即发布一系列总统令，提出他的中期经济愿景，应对未来六年或许会呈现的问题。普京的上任日通常是5月 7日，这些法则也都是在5月发布的，咱们称之为 "五月法则"。最新的五月法则也已发布，其间普京就怎么开展经济和社会提出了一些愿景。

他许诺，军费开支份额的添加不该献身社会经济范畴的开销，这些开支不会减少。事实上，在本年五月的法则中，有一些支撑家庭、支撑学校教育、支撑医疗和其他范畴的大型项目。

现在最重要的是这些五月法则的执行情况，由于俄罗斯专家关于曩昔的五月法则是否得到彻底施行有不同的观点；假如未能施行，咱们就要研讨为什么。至于五月法则背面雄心壮志的新方案，问题是怎么才干有用完成。

韩桦：俄罗斯有没有开端考虑“后普京年代”会是什么样的？

奥列格·巴拉巴诺夫：现在而言没有，由于他连任的得票率十分高，他又有了六年的任期。当然，咱们有反对派圈子，他们中的许多人在战役开端后就移民出俄罗斯，他们对普京的观点当然不太相同。但在俄罗斯国内，至少在揭露层面、干流媒体和干流Telegram频道等其他交际媒体上，咱们暂时看不到任何代替人选，没有人被提议作为代替人选。因而，现在我看不到有什么变数。

韩桦：普京此次访华期间，在超级繁忙的行程中，他甚至来到了哈尔滨，去了哈尔滨工业大学。这是俄罗斯转向东方战略的一部分吗？您以为转向东方战略的优先事项有哪些？

奥列格·巴拉巴诺夫：我很快乐俄罗斯官方代表团以最高级别拜访了哈尔滨，由于我国东北的三个区域，黑龙江和其他两个省，与俄罗斯西伯利亚和俄罗斯远东区域有很深的联络。咱们现已在省一级的私营企业之间展开了一些一同的经济项目。重要的是要扩展咱们已有的适当深沉的农业协作、交通协作根底。我国东北区域和俄罗斯西伯利亚区域之间就有这样的协作。

普京在哈尔滨工业大学与机器人握手

我知道两国在当地层级常常互派代表团进行拜访和谈判，两国的州长和省长也进行了杰出的触摸。假如这些触摸都能得到最高政治层面的支撑，当然，这对两国都是有利的，可促进现有项目。“转向东方”有两个层面，一个在全球、地缘政治和地缘经济层面上转向东方。另一个是在当地层面转向东方，这也适当重要。

韩桦：那么协作的优先事项是什么，农业仍是交通？

奥列格·巴拉巴诺夫：或许是其间一项，由于咱们在农产品进出口、谷物、大豆等食品行业现已有了适当强的协作。

交通也适当重要。几年前，黑河和布拉戈维申斯克之间的黑龙江上新建了一座大桥。咱们还应重视开发中俄边境的西部，由于咱们有50公里的一小段边境线，一边是俄罗斯的阿尔泰共和国，一边是我国新疆省。其时有铺设天然气管道的主意，也有建筑公路的主意，后来这些项目许多都不知不觉地中止了。我来自阿尔泰区域，所以现在我期望咱们不只展开跨黑龙江的协作，还应该开展咱们西段边境的协作。我对许多项目的布景故事都较为了解，期望它们现在也能得到开展。

韩桦：这对俄罗斯来说是一个十分具有战略意义的行为，由于这意味着要背向西方，背向欧洲，转而面临东方国家，包含作为最重要战略同伴的我国。那么从长远来看，这种转向东方的战略会持续下去吗？

奥列格·巴拉巴诺夫：是的。至少我期望如此，由于此前几十年来，俄罗斯一向在宣扬咱们有必要转向东方，不能彻底面向西方，首要即欧盟。

转向东方实际上首要是指转向我国，由于咱们有几千公里的一同鸿沟，咱们有着一同的价值观，有着杰出的政治气氛，有许多开展协作的项目。

实际上，直到2022年，俄罗斯依然面向西方，首要的经济尽力是开展与欧盟的协作。

事实上，俄罗斯与欧盟的进出口量其时约占俄罗斯对外交易总量的一半。我记住大约10年前，在普京总统和习近平主席的一次接见会面中，他们提出了中俄外贸额应到达 1000亿美元的主意。差不多十年前，这个方针被以为过高了，其时咱们的双方外贸额仅约600亿。但现在，中俄之间的交易额已达2200亿美元，超出10年前方针的两倍多。这些数字标明，现在俄罗斯对促进与我国在经济方面的协作有着极大的爱好。此外，咱们还在开展与亚洲其他经济大国的经济联系，与印度和其他国家的联系也在不断开展。

2022年注册的黑龙江大桥

韩桦：有一种说法是，我国和俄罗斯能够一同尽力，协助国际找到方法处理其时难题。甚至还有人说到，我国和俄罗斯能够成为两个引擎，协助处理去全球化问题，与广阔的全球南边国家一同尽力，走出所谓的“小院高墙”局势。您对此有何观点？

奥列格·巴拉巴诺夫：正如我所说的，俄罗斯十分感谢我国，感谢我国社会，感谢你们在其时地缘政治局势中采纳的情绪。没有人盼望我国会与俄罗斯一同在壕沟中与西方直接交兵，但咱们欣赏我国对平和建议的平衡情绪，以及促进构建新国际次序的整体愿景——不过咱们用了30年的“新国际次序”一词好像被赋上负面的意义了。

咱们真实需求的是一同愿景，怎么构建和安排一个更夸姣的国际。而我国现已有了十分翔实的交际方针战略，我记住习近平主席在二十大陈述中有很大一部分是关于交际方针的。我国交际方针的愿景、方针和价值观，大部分与俄罗斯的交际理念相同。从这个意义上讲，咱们能够说是天然的协作同伴。因而，中俄协作能够成为构建更夸姣未来国际格式的全球战略中心。

我以为美国人和欧洲人现在的对华方针十分愚笨。假如你有两个对手，与其间之一的军事抵触现已揭露化了，即俄罗斯与西方，那么你至少应该中止对第二个对手施压。假如他们的交际方针不由意识形态和教条主义左右，他们应该中止对我国施压，哪怕仅仅为了损坏俄罗斯与我国的联系。但他们没有这样做，反而加强了对我国的压力，持续在台湾寻衅，比方佩洛西窜访台湾等等。

我所说的不是俄罗斯的宣扬，但我以为这两年我国人民、我国社会和我国媒体现已理解，我国必定会成为美国的下一个方针。俄罗斯现在是美国的首要对手，但美国的一切行为、方针以及欧洲的方针都向咱们标明，我国必定会成为他们的下一个方针。因而，这意味着俄罗斯和我国应该成为朋友。

韩桦：可是比及俄乌抵触完毕，俄罗斯是否会再度将西方视为经济等方面的同伴甚至朋友？

奥列格·巴拉巴诺夫：这是个好问题，由于我记住大约10到15年前，当俄罗斯发起转向东方的方针时，我的一些我国搭档、我国专家责问咱们称，现在你们与西方、与美国、与欧盟的联系都不太好，所以你们才会决议转向东方，但假如哪一天你们与欧盟、与美国的联系得到康复，你们当天就会扔掉我国。

他们其时的质疑是有道理的，由于正如我此前所说，其时俄罗斯政治首要是面向西方的，在经济上是以欧盟为中心的，因而许多俄罗斯精英曩昔甚至现在都期望融为西方一部分。他们一些人的孩子和妻子住在西方国家，但除了单个特例之外，没有俄罗斯精英的孩子或妻子在我国。这一切都意味着我国质疑俄罗斯的转向东方战略是有道理的。

但我以为，在其时揭露战役仍在持续、俄罗斯与西方联系彻底决裂的情况下，已不或许康复过往的联系。至少俄罗斯交际部曾多次正式表明，未来不会康复俄欧联系，由于俄罗斯会记住西方的情绪。因而，我期望咱们不会再次转向西方，咱们要实行对我国朋友的许诺和责任。

韩桦：本年10月，金砖国家峰会将在俄罗斯喀山举办，俄罗斯在本年金砖国家峰会上的方针是什么？比方针对西方制裁的金融协作？

奥列格·巴拉巴诺夫：俄罗斯政府、部委和非政府安排都在为这次峰会做准备，这次峰会被视为本年俄罗斯交际方针的严重活动。每次金砖国家峰会的议程总是适当广泛的，主席国的总结陈述、峰会后的宣言，长达数十页，俄罗斯也在活跃做准备。

我以为，要害的政治问题或许聚集在加强金砖国家之间的联合上，由于咱们刚扩员。新成员国的领导人需求习惯金砖五国现有的议程架构，而俄罗斯能够提出加强成员之间的联合，这也能够在其他国家担任轮值主席国期间得到进一步开展。

金砖安排在标志意义上是十分重要的，标志非西方国家之间的协议。金砖峰会的宣言关于促进一套新的价值观、协作准则、促进国际联系中的公正与相等、促进消除贫穷等都是十分重要的，在非西方国家之间提出一些新的建议。

2024俄罗斯金砖峰会logo

金砖国家与许多其他渠道比较，比方与西方的七国集团比较，仍处于起步阶段。我以为，重要的是加强金砖国家成员内部的联合。由于在其时局势下，假如一个国际安排想在全球层面发挥有用效果，需求的不仅仅出台好听的声明，还需求成员之间的政治联合。

最终，在经济方面，金砖国家的金融机构新开发银行已建立数年，咱们应进一步推进去美元化，并不是现在就彻底抛弃美元，但上一年金砖五国的总统们现已提出添加彼此交易的辅币结算份额。金砖国家财政部长的相关特别陈述估计也将在俄罗斯金砖峰会期间发布。

以下为英文原文：

Han Hua: This military operation, lasted almost like two year and a half. So Russia's economy is also shifting its structure from more natural resources based, to a more diverse economic development structure. This is what I understand. Can you elaborate a little bit on this and how to foresee the economic future for Russia.

Oleg Barabanov: Yes, that's true. Also from my personal point of view, it’s better that we discuss it among us, because for the Chinese audience would be understandable more. Because Russia, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and after the Communist Party stopped to be at the leadership of the country. Russia economically always followed the neoliberal model. So all the large scale state investment into real industries were quite limited. Now for oil and gas exploration, sure, to that sphere, there were quite significant investments, both state and private. For all real industries, for machine building, for production of various goods, the state investment, the state initiative to invest were limited or almost non existent, and all our governments just follow the neoliberal model as the first axiom on market financial stability, to stop the inflation rate and so on, and all the investment into real industries were considered as a bad communist heritage. And so it was not only a political economic decision, it was unfortunately the ideological decision. And now by force, after the start of the military operation in Ukraine, our government was forced to invest into real industries, sure mainly to the military production, we can already see a spillover from the military investments into the civilian production sector.

And frankly speaking, for the 30 years after the end of the communist rule in Russia, our government started to invest into the real industries. And for me, because many people are surprised that the Russian economy now behaves quite well, quite effective under sanctions, under pressure of American and European sanctions. But maybe one of the key answers why we became quite effective under sanctions, it is exactly that the government started for the first time in 30 years to invest in real industries. And in fact, Mr Belousov, our new minister of defense, he was the first deputy prime minister before, and he was the key protagonist, the key ideologists in a good sense of the word, of investing into industries, because there are two factions, within our governmental circles. One is neoliberal, just focusing of macro financial things and another one was the idea to promote the investment into industrial projects; and Belousov was one of them, at least what we could see publicly, he supported investment into the industries. And maybe this is also those skills will be useful to his new position as a minister of defense, to coordinate budget spending into military industries.

Han Hua: Very interesting. So you mean that in the past 30 years that actually you have made solid foundation into real industries. And because of the war or the military operations, it just creates some natural results because of the military spending and because of the spillover of the military spending, right?

Oleg Barabanov: Yeah, that's true.

Han Hua: And also the economist who's now the Defense Minister is like the driver behind all the process. So let me ask you this. Putin’s reelections as president signals very strong stability during a very difficult time in your country. So what do you think we can expect over the next six years?

Oleg Barabanov: Well, it's sure that the figures of his electoral result were quite high, because usually for his last reelections, the figures were about 70% in his support. Now all the central electoral commission proclaimed that the result was 87%. So more or less 15%, 17% higher. And officially it was explained that there is a growing support for the president during the current geopolitical situation.

For the plans, Putin has a habit immediately after the start of his new term, he publish a series of presidential decrees of his medium term economic vision, what could be a problem for the next six years? Because the day of inauguration is traditionally May 7, and all those decrees are published in May as well, we name them the May decrees. And so the newest May decree was published. Now there is some vision of the president on how to develop the economy and society. He promise that the budget spending to social sphere, to social economic sphere should not be diminished because of the growing percentage of the military spending. And in fact, there are, in this May decree, there are some quite large scale projects on the family, on support of the families, on support of the schooling, on support of medicine, to other sectors. So now what is important is the fulfillment of those May decrees, because we have quite diverging remarks in the Russian experts sphere, how the results of the previous May decrees were achieved or not achieved in full. And if not, why were they not achieved. As for the new ambitious program behind the May decrees, but the question is how it could be achieved effectively.

Han Hua: Is there any talk or consideration of post Putin?

Oleg Barabanov: For the moment, I think no, because he was reelected with a very high result. Now he will have six years more. And at least within Russia, sure, we have the opposition circles and many of them have immigrated from Russia after the start of the war, and sure they have quite divergent views on Putin, but within the country, at least in the public sphere, at least the mainstream media mainstream Telegram channels, other spheres of social media, we can’t see any alternative for the moment, at least, nobody was proposed as an alternative. So for the moment, I don't see that there will be some new event.

Han Hua: During Putin's visit this time, during his super busy schedule, he even made it to Harbin, and went to Harbin Institute of technology. Does this indicate that this is an integral part of Putin's turn to east strategy. And what do you think of the priorities of this turn to east strategy?

Oleg Barabanov: First, let's start with Harbin in Heilongjiang province. Sure. That's very important. And I'm very glad that now the official Russian delegation visited Harbin at the highest level, because three regions of the Chinese Northeast, Heilongjiang and two other provinces, are quite deeply connected to the Russian Siberian, to the Russian far east. We already had some economic, common economic projects at the provincial level between private companies. And what is important is to enlarge already existing quite deep economic background of agriculture cooperation, transport cooperation. They are between the Chinese northeast and the Russian Siberia.

And I know that there are many visits and many talks of delegations at the regional levels. The governors of the regions had good contact, some of them and so on.

And now if all this could be supported from the highest political level, sure, it would be useful for both countries. And today it could be useful to promote the existing projects.

Look east has two dimensions, one is more or less global, to look east globally and geopolitically and geoeconomically. And another is to look east at the local level, which is also quite important.

Han Hua: what are the priorities in your opinion? Agriculture or transportation?

Oleg Barabanov: Could be one of them, because we already had quite comparatively strong cooperation in export-import of agricultural products, in grain, soybeans, some other products in the food sector.

The transportation is also quite important. A couple of years ago, the new bridge was built over the Heilongjiang river between Heihe and Blagoveshchensk. And there are some other projects for transportation. What is important is also to develop the western part of the Russian Chinese border, because we have small segment of our border, 50 km in the west, which is the Altai Republic of Russia and a part of Xinjiang in China, we already had several projects for developing the western segment of our border. There were ideas of gas pipeline, there were ideas to build a road. Then many of those projects will stop somehow. And I hope now, because I’m from the Altai region, personally interested in developing the cooperation not only in Heilongjiang but the Western part of our border. And I know the story of many of those projects and hope they could be developed now as well.

Han Hua: This is a very strategic move for Russia because it means that you're turning back to the west, the Europe, you're facing the eastern countries, including China as the most important strategic partner. So in the long term, will this turn to east strategy be sustained?

Oleg Barabanov: Yes. At least I hope so because previously, already for several decades, Russia promoted the idea that we must look east, must not focus all out policy economy on the west and mainly the EU.

Look east, it means mainly, frankly speaking, look at China. Because we have the common border of several thousand kilometers. We have shared values and a good political atmosphere between our countries. There are many projects to develop Russian Chinese cooperation. Until 2022, Russia still was anchored to the west and the main economic efforts were done to develop the cooperation with the EU.

In fact, the figures of our export import operations with the European Union consisted of more or less a half of our foreign trade in general. And I remember about 10 years ago, at one meeting between Putin and Xi Jinping, they proposed the idea that the volume of the foreign trade between Russia and China should be aimed at one hundred billion dollars. And more or less ten years ago, it was considered as too ambitious because we had between 50, 60, maybe seventy billion dollars of bilateral foreign trade. But now we have 220 billion dollars of the foreign trade between Russia and China. So those over-ambitious aim of 10 years ago was surpassed twice and more. And these figures show that now Russia had a vital interest in promoting cooperation with China in all economic spheres. Also, we are developing our economic relations with other big economic powers, in Asia; with India, we have the growing figures, with other countries, so this strategy started to go.

Han Hua: There is a saying about how China and Russia can jointly work together to help the world to find solutions to the current disorder and difficulties. And there is even mentioning about China and Russia can be two engines, to help solve the deglobalization’s difficult situation, by working together with the vast Global South to break out from the so called high fence small yard situation. So what's your take on this?

Oleg Barabanov: And as I already said, Russia is really grateful to China, to the Chinese society, for your position now in the current geopolitical situation. Nobody expects that China could join Russia at the barricade in the direct fighting with the West. But we appreciate the balanced Chinese approach to the peace initiatives and also to promote the general new vision for making the new world order, because the new world order is a very bad phrase, we’ve used it for 20 or 30 years. But we, what we really need is the real common vision of how the better world could be structured, how it could be built and organized. And China already have that very deeply elaborated foreign policy strategy. It was done in your last Congress of the Communist Party of China. And I remember the report of Mister Xi Jinping, had very large section on foreign policy, on the visions, goals and values of the foreign policy of China, and Russia shares almost all of them. So in that sense, we are more or less natural partners because our foreign policy strategies and goals are shared or well understood by other countries. So in that sense, Russia China cooperation could be at the center of the new global strategy, how we can build a better world for the future.

And also it's very important because for me personally, the Americans and the Europeans are very stupid in their current policy on China. Because for example, if you have two enemies or two adversaries, with one of them, you are already in the open military conflict. This is Russia and the West. At least for the moment, stop pressing the second adversary. If they declare in their foreign policy and not be dogmatic, they could stop pressing China, at least in this situation, just with the aim to break the relations between Russia and China. But they didn't. They exactly strengthen their pressure on China. They continued the provocations in Taiwan, remember the visit of Nancy Pelosi on the province of Taiwan and so on. And because of that, I'm not expressing the Russian propaganda, but I think that the people in China and the society in China and media in China in these two years already understood that China definitely will be the next target for the United States. Russia is the key target now. But all the American activity, all the American policy and European as well, shows for us that China definitely will be the next target for them. So it all means that Russia and China should be friends.

Han Hua: But when the war ends, will Russia still think about Europe or the west as a friend or partner to work with economically, for example.

Oleg Barabanov: Well, it's a good question, because I remember about 10 to 15 years ago when Russia promoted the policy to look east, some of my Chinese colleagues, the Chinese experts ask me and ask other Russian, okay, now you have more or less bad relations with the West, with United States, with European Union. So you decided to look east. But let's imagine that one day your relations with the EU, with the US will be restored. You will forget China immediately. In one day, in one night. And they had reason to say so, because as I already tried to explain you, the real Russian politics was mainly western centric, EU centric in economy, and so the desire to be part of the west was and is quite a diffuse topic among the Russian elites. So some of them have their children, their wives in Western countries, in Europe, but how many children or wives of Russian elites are in China? I think nobody, or rarest exceptions. It all mean that question, should China trust Russia in our Look east policy, was reasonable.

But I think that now, in the current situation when the open war is going on, and the relations are broken totally between Russia and the West, restoring the old nostalgic relations with previous matters would not be possible. At least officially, our Foreign Ministry expressed for several times that there will not be the restoration of Russia-EU relations in the future, because Russia will remember the opposition in the current situation. So I hope that we will not turn west once more, and we fulfill our obligations and our promises to the Chinese friends.

Han Hua: Is there any specifics that you want to mention? For example, the BRICS summit, what's your goal? And also, for example, any financial collaborations against the sanctions from the west.

Oleg Barabanov: Yes, sure. This year, Russia will be hosting the BRICS summit, will be done in October in Kazan, the capital of the Republic of Tatarstan in the Russian Federation. And now I see that both our governmental circles, our ministries and our NGOs are preparing for the summit. It is considered as the key foreign policy event in Russia for this year. And among the key topics, because the agenda you understand is always quite wide in the BRICS summit, if you can see the presidency conclusion, memoranda, declarations after the summits, there are about several dozens of pages, several dozens of points. So a very large, a very detailed documents.

But the key political question as I personally see it could be focused on the greater solidarity between the BRICS countries because now we have enlarged it, new members are invited to join the club. So their leaders will be present as the new BRICS members. They have to adapt to already existing structure of the agenda of the BRICS and of the structure, and the solidarity of the members is the key factor that could be proposed by Russia, and it could be developed in other presidencies of the BRICS. Because for the moment, if we see BRICS as an institutional structure, it's very important on the symbolic level, as a symbol of non western agreement, or cooperation among the major non western countries, and all those annual declarations, of BRICS summits are very important to promote a new set of values, to promoting a new set of principles for cooperation, for justice and Equality in international relations, for the fight against poverty and so on, and to propose in some new decisions within the non-Western countries.

Now already for several years BRICS launched the New Development Bank as a new financial institution. Comparing BRICS with many other formats, like with G7 within the West, but still at the beginning of our process. And what is important from my personal point of view is to strengthen the internal solidarity within the BRICS members. Because if an international structure could be effective in the global level now, in the current situation, it could be strong, and the strength of the organizations means not only the good symbolic letters written in the declarations, it means the real solidarity in the real politics among the members. So that is for me personally. So I'm not the decision makers there.

The first thing will be to strengthen solidarity. And another economic one, just to conclude, would be to develop further, not renounce the US dollar completely now, but a year ago, the presidents of the BRICS already proposed the idea that they could strengthen, the payment for commercial contracts within their countries could be done in their national currencies. And now the special report of the ministers of finances of the BRICS countries is expected during the summit. So how it could be done smoothly, not to diminish the potential for cooperation, but just to strengthen.

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